investing

Risk management

Effective risk management of cryptocurrency

Effective risk management of cryptocurrency 800 426 cryptonews@arxnovum.com

The management of risk is important in the administration of any investment strategy on any asset class, but never more so than on a highly volatile asset like cryptocurrency. But how does a manager ensure effective risk management oversight when implementing an index strategy?  

Today we will address the various screens built into the index construction that helps minimize the loss of capital, including :

  • starting universe exclusions, 
  • legal and regulatory exclusions,
  • minimum listing and safekeeping requirements and 
  • liquidity parameters.

Starting universe exclusions:

The index starts with a focus on cryptocurrencies but excludes any digital assets that are linked to another asset including fiat currency (stablecoins), physical commodity or digital asset. This simple exclusion eliminated the exposure to the recent collapse of Terra/Luna. Thus allowing the index to remain focused solely on the economic drivers behind investing in cryptocurrency by eliminating the financial engineering that underpins stablecoins. 

Legal and regulatory exclusions:

The index then removes any cryptocurrency whose status is ambiguous or has been questioned by regulatory authorities from a developed market. While this risk mitigation seems fairly straightforward, it’s also important to note that the index also has the flexibility to, in exceptional circumstances, remove a constituent if there are any regulatory or legal actions that questions the legitimacy of the digital asset. 

Minimum listing and safekeeping requirements:

In order to create a benchmark that accurately reflects the market, an index must include securities that investors can reliably access, trade and store. In order to achieve this goal the benchmark employs two selection criteria:

  • an asset safekeeping test that states that a cryptocurrency must be eligible for custody at 2 or more regulated custodians, and 
  • a trading venue test that states that a cryptocurrency must be eligible for trading against the currency of the index on 2 or more recognized constituent exchanges. 

Liquidity parameters:

Finally in order to ensure that the benchmark is investible, an index should screen for eligible constituents that meet minimum liquidity or asset turnover requirements. The liquidity screen requires the constituents to have a liquidity ratio of greater than 0.5% relative to the remaining constituents in the index. The turnover screen requires that greater than 2% of the outstanding float is trading throughout the year. 

Each of the steps described here are designed to 1) minimize loss through the exclusion of asset linked cryptocurrencies and cryptocurrencies whose status is legally ambiguous or questions by regulators, or, 2) increase tradability by insuring minimum listing and safekeeping requirements or meeting liquidity and asset turnover requirements.

Tomorrow, we will close this week’s series of blog posts by tying together all the topics in a succinct recap of reasons to consider adding the Arxnovum Multi Crypto Index Fund to your portfolio.

The products and services offered by Arxnovum are available to qualified investors in certain provinces and territories of Canada. Individual investors should contact their own financial professional to determine the most appropriate investment options for their financial situation. This material contains the opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission.
 
All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investing in the cryptocurrency market is subject to risks.  Cryptocurrency, often referred to as “virtual currency” or “digital currency”, operates as a decentralized, peer-to-peer financial exchange and value storage that is used like money. Cryptocurrency operates without the oversight of a central authority or the banks and is not backed by any government. Even indirectly, cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin may experience high volatility, and related investment vehicles may be affected by such volatility. Cryptocurrency is not legal tender. Federal, state, provincial, territorial or foreign governments may restrict the use and exchange of cryptocurrency, and regulation in North America is still developing. Cryptocurrency trading platforms may stop operating or permanently shut down due to fraud, technical glitches, hackers or malware, which could have an adverse impact on the net asset value per unit of the Fund. Please consult the Funds Term Sheet for a complete list of risks.
 
Certain statements in this document are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements (“FLS”) are statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, or that include words such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” or “estimate,” or other similar expressions. Statements that look forward in time or include anything other than historical information are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results, actions or events could differ materially from those set forth in the FLS. FLS are not guarantees of future performance and are by their nature based on numerous assumptions. Although the FLS contained herein are based upon what Arxnovum Investments Inc. and the portfolio manager believe to be reasonable assumptions, neither Arxnovum Investments Inc. nor the portfolio manager can assure that actual results will be consistent with these FLS. The reader is cautioned to consider the FLS carefully and not to place undue reliance on FLS. Unless required by applicable law, it is not undertaken, and specifically disclaimed that there is any intention or obligation to update or revise FLS, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Crypto index tilts heavily to the largest constituents

Addressing concentration of cryptocurrency market

Addressing concentration of cryptocurrency market 1024 536 cryptonews@arxnovum.com

How to address concentration risk in portfolio construction? Today we will explore different ways to design an index that tilts so heavily to the largest constituents while keeping an eye on tradability and risk management. 

Historically, index providers have used fixed weight capping to mitigate large concentration in one or more securities, where the extra weight is redistributed to smaller non capped constituents. Recall from our first blog in the series the weights as follows:

Market capitalization: 

Bitcoin and Ethereum represent over 80% of cryptocurrency market capitalization

Source: CF Benchmarks, as of March 1, 2022

By applying a fixed cap of 25% to these weights, bitcoin and ether would exceed the cap at inception, with no difference in weighting based on market capitalization or liquidity.  Different capping weights would result in similar results and lead to the index trading more like a fixed weight index than a market capitalization weighted index. 

The point on liquidity is probably the most impactful for a small burgeoning asset category like cryptocurrency.  For an index to be representative of the market it needs to be tradable.  Smaller constituents generally have a significantly lower liquidity profile, thus making it difficult for institutional managers to replicate the market beta when the smaller constituents receive a higher weighting that results from capping the very largest constituents. Therefore an index that significantly re-weights to much smaller and illiquid names creates a benchmark that may not be representative or tradable.

So how to solve this problem? Instead of applying a fixed cap, the index will benefit from a smoothed capitalization methodology where each additional percentage weight is discounted sequentially more than the previous one by a defined amount.  This progressive redistribution from large to small caps benefits from keeping the final index weights relatively close to free float market capitalization while still achieving diversification. 

In order to achieve the smooth capitalization redistribution, the discounting will increase exponentially using the inverse step function applied to each additional 4% bucket. The inverse stepped function basically reduces each tranche by 1/ nth tranche.  To illustrate, if we were to apply the inverse step function with a 4% tranche to the 60.31% market capitalization weight to bitcoin, you would have a process that looks like the following chart and we have a new bitcoin index weight of 37.11%. 

Bitcoin diversification step example:

BTC diversification step

Source: CF Benchmarks, as of March 1, 2022

By applying this process to the whole index you achieve a redistribution that looks like the following.

Diversified weights:

Crypto portfolio with BTC and ETH concentration lowered to 65% of the total

Source: CF Benchmarks, as of March 1, 2022

The smoothed capitalization redistribution allows investors to achieve the primary goals of a market capitalization weighted index, to be representative of the market, to reduce concentration to the largest weights and to remain tradeable. 

Our blog series continues tomorrow with a discussion on how the use of index inclusion and exclusion screens can be used to help reduce risk.

The products and services offered by Arxnovum are available to qualified investors in certain provinces and territories of Canada. Individual investors should contact their own financial professional to determine the most appropriate investment options for their financial situation. This material contains the opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission.
 
All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investing in the cryptocurrency market is subject to risks.  Cryptocurrency, often referred to as “virtual currency” or “digital currency”, operates as a decentralized, peer-to-peer financial exchange and value storage that is used like money. Cryptocurrency operates without the oversight of a central authority or the banks and is not backed by any government. Even indirectly, cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin may experience high volatility, and related investment vehicles may be affected by such volatility. Cryptocurrency is not legal tender. Federal, state, provincial, territorial or foreign governments may restrict the use and exchange of cryptocurrency, and regulation in North America is still developing. Cryptocurrency trading platforms may stop operating or permanently shut down due to fraud, technical glitches, hackers or malware, which could have an adverse impact on the net asset value per unit of the Fund. Please consult the Funds Term Sheet for a complete list of risks.
 
Certain statements in this document are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements (“FLS”) are statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, or that include words such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” or “estimate,” or other similar expressions. Statements that look forward in time or include anything other than historical information are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results, actions or events could differ materially from those set forth in the FLS. FLS are not guarantees of future performance and are by their nature based on numerous assumptions. Although the FLS contained herein are based upon what Arxnovum Investments Inc. and the portfolio manager believe to be reasonable assumptions, neither Arxnovum Investments Inc. nor the portfolio manager can assure that actual results will be consistent with these FLS. The reader is cautioned to consider the FLS carefully and not to place undue reliance on FLS. Unless required by applicable law, it is not undertaken, and specifically disclaimed that there is any intention or obligation to update or revise FLS, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Diversification means not having all your eggs in one basket

The benefits of diversifying cryptocurrency exposure

The benefits of diversifying cryptocurrency exposure 800 600 cryptonews@arxnovum.com

Do investors even need exposure to more than just bitcoin and ether? Today we will address the benefits of a diversified portfolio of cryptocurrencies. 

While it is true that bitcoin and ether have historically experienced high correlations, the same can’t be said for bitcoin or ether versus the largest alt coins. This can be seen in the historical daily correlation table below. Note that the May 2020 analysis period was selected as the start date because it represents the common inception for all cryptocurrencies included in the analysis. 

Cryptocurrency correlations across various market environments:

Cryptocurrency correlations are usually close to or below the 0.60 threshold

Source: Coingecko May 1, 2020 through July 20, 2022

Diversification benefits typically accrue to an investor’s portfolio when correlation coefficients are less than 0.60.  As you can see the correlation coefficients are generally close to or below the 0.60 threshold, with the median correlation of 0.52.  

As with any market based statistics, these correlations are dynamic and have changed over time and in different market environments. Historically, correlations of traditional asset classes have tended to fall in rising markets while securities have tended to become more correlated in falling markets. As the cryptocurrency market has matured, it too has tended to follow a similar pattern. This can be seen by looking at the correlations during the market rise between May 2020 and the all-time high in November 2021. The median correlation during this rising market was 0.47. 

Cryptocurrency correlations during bull market period:

Cryptocurrency correlation values tend to trend down in a bull market

Source: Coingecko May 1, 2020 through November 1, 2021

By comparison the median correlation during the crypto winter from November 1, 2021 through July 20, 2022 jumped significantly to 0.75.

Cryptocurrency correlations during bear market period:

Cryptocurrency correlations in a bear market tend upwards to 0.75

Source: Coingecko November 1, 2021 through July 20, 2022

The lower correlations in a rising market illustrates the idiosyncratic risks that exist between the largest cryptocurrencies. Small differences in governance structure, consensus mechanism, cryptography, fees, or transaction times between the different cryptocurrency blockchains can have a material impact on how they perform and contribute or detract from a diversified portfolio.

A diversified portfolio of cryptocurrencies including both core positions in bitcoin and ether complimented by a basket of altcoins can add diversification benefits in rising markets and across multiple market cycles.

Check back tomorrow where we will explore how smart index construction can be used to reduce the concentration risk inherent in building a market capitalization weighted index that includes bitcoin and ether.

The products and services offered by Arxnovum are available to qualified investors in certain provinces and territories of Canada. Individual investors should contact their own financial professional to determine the most appropriate investment options for their financial situation. This material contains the opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission.
 
All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investing in the cryptocurrency market is subject to risks.  Cryptocurrency, often referred to as “virtual currency” or “digital currency”, operates as a decentralized, peer-to-peer financial exchange and value storage that is used like money. Cryptocurrency operates without the oversight of a central authority or the banks and is not backed by any government. Even indirectly, cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin may experience high volatility, and related investment vehicles may be affected by such volatility. Cryptocurrency is not legal tender. Federal, state, provincial, territorial or foreign governments may restrict the use and exchange of cryptocurrency, and regulation in North America is still developing. Cryptocurrency trading platforms may stop operating or permanently shut down due to fraud, technical glitches, hackers or malware, which could have an adverse impact on the net asset value per unit of the Fund. Please consult the Funds Term Sheet for a complete list of risks.
 
Certain statements in this document are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements (“FLS”) are statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, or that include words such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” or “estimate,” or other similar expressions. Statements that look forward in time or include anything other than historical information are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results, actions or events could differ materially from those set forth in the FLS. FLS are not guarantees of future performance and are by their nature based on numerous assumptions. Although the FLS contained herein are based upon what Arxnovum Investments Inc. and the portfolio manager believe to be reasonable assumptions, neither Arxnovum Investments Inc. nor the portfolio manager can assure that actual results will be consistent with these FLS. The reader is cautioned to consider the FLS carefully and not to place undue reliance on FLS. Unless required by applicable law, it is not undertaken, and specifically disclaimed that there is any intention or obligation to update or revise FLS, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
The cryptocurrency market includes more than bitcoin

Cryptocurrency investing is more than bitcoin

Cryptocurrency investing is more than bitcoin 1920 1080 cryptonews@arxnovum.com

Cryptocurrency investing includes more than just bitcoin and ether, but with over 10,000 tokens available to investors, how does one select which currencies to hold? 

In a series of blog posts we will seek to outline the case for investing in a diversified portfolio for cryptocurrencies by exploring the concentration of the cryptocurrency market, the benefits of diversification, index construction and selection criteria designed to minimize risk. We will kick off the series with a discussion of the concentration of the cryptocurrency market.

Historically cryptocurrency markets have been dominated by bitcoin which also has the distinction of being the oldest, largest and most widely known. Following its launch in 2015, ether quickly gained prominence and moved into the number two spot after only 6 months. Since the beginning of 2016 bitcoin and ether have dominated the cryptocurrency markets and the public discourse surrounding crypto investing.

As recently as March 2022, bitcoin and ether comprised nearly 90% of the cryptocurrency market. I think it’s important to clarify that we are focused solely on cryptocurrencies and have excluded stablecoins and asset backed tokens from this analysis. 

Market capitalization:

Bitcoin and Ethereum represent over 80% of cryptocurrency market capitalization

Source: CF Benchmarks, as of March 1, 2022

The dominance of bitcoin and ether in cryptocurrency markets can be attributed to a number of factors but the foremost of which is the infancy of the space in general. The average age of all constituents in the index is only 5.75 years. When you remove the largest, that average age falls to only 4.75 years. 

Each cryptocurrency network is supported by miners, node operators and users. Bitcoin, which is now over 13.5 years old, has had more than twice as much time as the average constituent to establish a network effect of participants. Since its inception, the bitcoins blockchain network has accumulated 37.5 million active non zero addresses. By comparison, the smallest constituent in the index which, coincidentally is the same age as the average age of all the index constituents, has accumulated only 130k active non zero addresses. (Source: Glassnode, July 18, 2022)

These smaller networks add diversification by gaining exposure to new and innovative technologies that strive to improve upon the existing experience users have in bitcoin or ether. While their technology is not as revolutionary as bitcoin, they are no less disruptive and can add diversification.

Tomorrow we will further expand on the benefits of diversification, even in an asset class that has experienced high historical correlations.

The products and services offered by Arxnovum are available to qualified investors in certain provinces and territories of Canada. Individual investors should contact their own financial professional to determine the most appropriate investment options for their financial situation. This material contains the opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission.
 
All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investing in the cryptocurrency market is subject to risks.  Cryptocurrency, often referred to as “virtual currency” or “digital currency”, operates as a decentralized, peer-to-peer financial exchange and value storage that is used like money. Cryptocurrency operates without the oversight of a central authority or the banks and is not backed by any government. Even indirectly, cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin may experience high volatility, and related investment vehicles may be affected by such volatility. Cryptocurrency is not legal tender. Federal, state, provincial, territorial or foreign governments may restrict the use and exchange of cryptocurrency, and regulation in North America is still developing. Cryptocurrency trading platforms may stop operating or permanently shut down due to fraud, technical glitches, hackers or malware, which could have an adverse impact on the net asset value per unit of the Fund. Please consult the Funds Term Sheet for a complete list of risks.
 
Certain statements in this document are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements (“FLS”) are statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, or that include words such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” or “estimate,” or other similar expressions. Statements that look forward in time or include anything other than historical information are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results, actions or events could differ materially from those set forth in the FLS. FLS are not guarantees of future performance and are by their nature based on numerous assumptions. Although the FLS contained herein are based upon what Arxnovum Investments Inc. and the portfolio manager believe to be reasonable assumptions, neither Arxnovum Investments Inc. nor the portfolio manager can assure that actual results will be consistent with these FLS. The reader is cautioned to consider the FLS carefully and not to place undue reliance on FLS. Unless required by applicable law, it is not undertaken, and specifically disclaimed that there is any intention or obligation to update or revise FLS, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
CAASA logo

Arxnovum Investments Founder to speak at CAASA Super Week: PE/VC & Digital Assets Conference

Arxnovum Investments Founder to speak at CAASA Super Week: PE/VC & Digital Assets Conference 328 153 cryptonews@arxnovum.com

Arxnovum Investments is pleased to announce that Shaun Cumby is scheduled to present at CAASA Super Week: PE/VC & Digital Assets Conference in Toronto Ontario, on September 27, 2022 at 9:00am EST.  

Shaun will be joined onstage with a distinguished panel including Kerem Kolcuoglu, Managing Partner at Penrose Partners and Koleya Karringten, Executive Director of the Canadian Blockchain Consortium in a discussion of the Origins of Blockchain, Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency.

To register or for a complete conference agenda, please visit caasa.ca/Super-Week-2022:PE/VC & Digital Assets

The products and services offered by Arxnovum are available to qualified investors in certain provinces and territories of Canada. Individual investors should contact their own financial professional to determine the most appropriate investment options for their financial situation. This material contains the opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission.
 
All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investing in the cryptocurrency market is subject to risks.  Cryptocurrency, often referred to as “virtual currency” or “digital currency”, operates as a decentralized, peer-to-peer financial exchange and value storage that is used like money. Cryptocurrency operates without the oversight of a central authority or the banks and is not backed by any government. Even indirectly, cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin may experience high volatility, and related investment vehicles may be affected by such volatility. Cryptocurrency is not legal tender. Federal, state, provincial, territorial or foreign governments may restrict the use and exchange of cryptocurrency, and regulation in North America is still developing. Cryptocurrency trading platforms may stop operating or permanently shut down due to fraud, technical glitches, hackers or malware, which could have an adverse impact on the net asset value per unit of the Fund. Please consult the Funds Term Sheet for a complete list of risks.
 
Certain statements in this document are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements (“FLS”) are statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, or that include words such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” or “estimate,” or other similar expressions. Statements that look forward in time or include anything other than historical information are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results, actions or events could differ materially from those set forth in the FLS. FLS are not guarantees of future performance and are by their nature based on numerous assumptions. Although the FLS contained herein are based upon what Arxnovum Investments Inc. and the portfolio manager believe to be reasonable assumptions, neither Arxnovum Investments Inc. nor the portfolio manager can assure that actual results will be consistent with these FLS. The reader is cautioned to consider the FLS carefully and not to place undue reliance on FLS. Unless required by applicable law, it is not undertaken, and specifically disclaimed that there is any intention or obligation to update or revise FLS, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
An illustrated rocket launches off of a laptop

Arxnovum Investments is pleased to announce another milestone in our growth

Arxnovum Investments is pleased to announce another milestone in our growth 1800 850 cryptonews@arxnovum.com

Our goal at Arxnovum Investments is to become Canada’s leading digital asset investor and we believe that begins with investor education and awareness. Digital asset investing, from bitcoin to other assets, can be overwhelming, even for the most sophisticated investors. We hope to make it clear. Given the many benefits and risks associated with investing in cryptocurrency, our investors can arm themselves with information to make more knowledgeable investing decisions.

To that end we’ve been working on something big and the time has come to launch something new. Our inaugural private funds are available for accredited investors and we are pleased to announce the launch of our website:

arxnovum.com

The website includes a number of new and exciting features designed to provide investors and crypto enthusiasts with timely and relevant content on our funds, our current thinking and the crypto market more broadly. 

There are three key areas included in the launch:

  • Fund summary cards – that include detailed information on the Arxnovum Bitcoin Fund, Arxnovum Ether Fund, Arxnovum DeFi Index Fund and the Arxnovum Multi Crypto Index Fund.
  • Insights blog – that include written and video commentary and educational pieces on the cryptocurrency markets.
  • Client access portal – that allows investors access to their account information.

One last thing, we are also pleased to announce the launch of Crypto Corner, our e-newsletter, which is a daily summary of the latest news impacting crypto markets globally. Sign up here to be added to the distribution list: Investor Registration

We are very excited for the launch but even more interested in hearing your feedback. Leave a comment below or email us at info@arxnovum.com.

The products and services offered by Arxnovum are available to qualified investors in certain provinces and territories of Canada. Individual investors should contact their own financial professional to determine the most appropriate investment options for their financial situation. This material contains the opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission.
 
All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investing in the cryptocurrency market is subject to risks.  Cryptocurrency, often referred to as “virtual currency” or “digital currency”, operates as a decentralized, peer-to-peer financial exchange and value storage that is used like money. Cryptocurrency operates without the oversight of a central authority or the banks and is not backed by any government. Even indirectly, cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin may experience high volatility, and related investment vehicles may be affected by such volatility. Cryptocurrency is not legal tender. Federal, state, provincial, territorial or foreign governments may restrict the use and exchange of cryptocurrency, and regulation in North America is still developing. Cryptocurrency trading platforms may stop operating or permanently shut down due to fraud, technical glitches, hackers or malware, which could have an adverse impact on the net asset value per unit of the Fund. Please consult the Funds Term Sheet for a complete list of risks.
 
Certain statements in this document are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements (“FLS”) are statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, or that include words such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” or “estimate,” or other similar expressions. Statements that look forward in time or include anything other than historical information are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results, actions or events could differ materially from those set forth in the FLS. FLS are not guarantees of future performance and are by their nature based on numerous assumptions. Although the FLS contained herein are based upon what Arxnovum Investments Inc. and the portfolio manager believe to be reasonable assumptions, neither Arxnovum Investments Inc. nor the portfolio manager can assure that actual results will be consistent with these FLS. The reader is cautioned to consider the FLS carefully and not to place undue reliance on FLS. Unless required by applicable law, it is not undertaken, and specifically disclaimed that there is any intention or obligation to update or revise FLS, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Crypto charts on a wall-mounted monitor.

Crypto: What to expect in 2022

Crypto: What to expect in 2022 2560 1707 cryptonews@arxnovum.com

As a relatively young asset class, the cryptocurrency space is evolving rapidly. In today’s post we review some recent developments and provide a brief look into what we expect from the cryptocurrency market in 2022.

Crypto volatility creates opportunity

Historically cryptocurrency investors have experienced very high volatility. Since 2014, Bitcoin has had an annualized volatility of 81%. This eye-popping number is nearly six times higher than the realized annual volatility for the S&P 500. (Source: portfoliovisualizer.com BTC Jan 2014 – Dec 2021)

Over the period, Bitcoin fell 44 times yet still managed to generate cumulative returns of 6023%, or 67% annualized.

(Source: portfoliovisualizer.com BTC Jan 2014 – Dec 2021)

Last year saw a similar trajectory. Even though Bitcoin was up 59%, volatility still remained high at 80% with negative returns in six of the 12 months.  (Source: portofoliovisuializer.com BTC 2021)

I write this not to scare you, but to illustrate that volatility can be a good thing. If paired with a dollar cost average strategy, volatility can capitalize on opportunities to access this new and developing technology. We see no reason for this volatility to change in 2022, with the first few weeks of the year serving as an admittedly small sample size.

SEC likely to approve BTC ETF

In 2021 the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first bitcoin ETF,  which follows a futures-based strategy.

However, a futures-based strategy may not live up to investor expectations of accurately tracking the price of the underlying asset. Bitcoin futures typically trade in “contango,” a futures market situation in which longer-dated contracts trade at a higher price than shorter-dated contracts.

This can result in significant underperformance, which may persist for as long as Bitcoin remains in contango.

According to the SEC, its mission is “to protect investors; maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets,” and it “strives to promote a market environment that is worthy of the public’s trust and characterized by transparency and integrity.” Given the potential short-comings of a futures-based strategy, we believe the SEC will likely approve a spot Bitcoin ETF before the end of 2022.

Ethereum moves to PoS

The primary goal of an effective decentralized network is to ensure that nobody spends the same money twice. In order to ensure this goal holds true, networks use consensus mechanisms to validate legitimate transactions. Proof of Work (PoW) and its newer sibling Proof of Stake (PoS) are the two consensus mechanisms used by most cryptocurrencies. PoW networks include Bitcoin and Ethereum, while newer cryptocurrencies like Ethereum 2.0, Cardano and others rely on PoS validation.

While PoW networks have developed a well-established technology and trusted network, there are limits to their growth. Steady increases in the number of transactions result in a serious drawback of PoW networks, the significant energy consumption needed to validate these transactions. In a quest to solve this dilemma, the cryptocurrency community set out to solve the energy consumption issue by creating PoS. Improved energy efficiency is a major driver for the validators staking the network and the driving force behind Ethereum’s move to a PoS network from PoW. It’s expected that this transition will take place during the second quarter of 2022.

Countries adopt Bitcoin as legal tender

2021 proved to be a milestone year for Bitcoin as it continues to evolve from being a small technology project into fulfilling its promise as a medium of exchange. El Salvador was the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. The rationale for the adoption was threefold:

  • to formalize the country’s economy, as most Salvadorans don’t have bank accounts;
  • to make it faster and cheaper to send remittances abroad; and
  • to attract foreign direct investment into the country.

We fully expect to see other countries to follow El Salvador’s lead and adopt bitcoin as legal tender.

The Global Crypto Adoption Index tracks the on-chain cryptocurrency value received, on-chain retail value transferred and the peer-to-peer exchange trade value, all weighted against the purchasing power parity per capita.

This index shows that Vietnam is well ahead of the world on Bitcoin adoption and is a likely candidate to consider adding crypto as legal tender. Asian countries round out the top three adopters with India and Pakistan coming in second and third, respectively. Ukraine leads adoption in Europe, while Kenya and Nigeria lead in Africa.

These developments suggest 2022 to be an important year in the continuing adoption of cryptocurrencies. Stay tuned for future posts on how to weight cryptocurrency within a well-diversified portfolio.

Source: https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/2021-global-crypto-adoption-index/

Disclosures
The products and services offered by Arxnovum are available to qualified investors in certain provinces and territories of Canada. Individual investors should contact their own financial professional to determine the most appropriate investment options for their financial situation. This material contains the opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission.
 
All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investing in the cryptocurrency market is subject to risks.  Cryptocurrency, often referred to as “virtual currency” or “digital currency”, operates as a decentralized, peer-to-peer financial exchange and value storage that is used like money. Cryptocurrency operates without the oversight of a central authority or the banks and is not backed by any government. Even indirectly, cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin may experience high volatility, and related investment vehicles may be affected by such volatility. Cryptocurrency is not legal tender. Federal, state, provincial, territorial or foreign governments may restrict the use and exchange of cryptocurrency, and regulation in North America is still developing. Cryptocurrency trading platforms may stop operating or permanently shut down due to fraud, technical glitches, hackers or malware, which could have an adverse impact on the net asset value per unit of the Fund. Please consult the Funds Term Sheet for a complete list of risks.
 
Certain statements in this document are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements (“FLS”) are statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, or that include words such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” or “estimate,” or other similar expressions. Statements that look forward in time or include anything other than historical information are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results, actions or events could differ materially from those set forth in the FLS. FLS are not guarantees of future performance and are by their nature based on numerous assumptions. Although the FLS contained herein are based upon what Arxnovum Investments Inc. and the portfolio manager believe to be reasonable assumptions, neither Arxnovum Investments Inc. nor the portfolio manager can assure that actual results will be consistent with these FLS. The reader is cautioned to consider the FLS carefully and not to place undue reliance on FLS. Unless required by applicable law, it is not undertaken, and specifically disclaimed that there is any intention or obligation to update or revise FLS, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
A metallic coin with the Ethereum logo on it (ie. an Ethereum token)

Why invest in cryptocurrencies?

Why invest in cryptocurrencies? 1884 1152 cryptonews@arxnovum.com

Cryptocurrencies have gripped the financial press for several years, with headlines focusing on fortunes made and lost in the space. This kind of coverage often ignores or even downplays the considerable benefits that cryptocurrencies may bring to the global financial system. Despite the media attention, they remain a mystery to many investors, from large institutions to individual households. Here I’ll provide a brief introduction into what cryptocurrencies are, why they’re important to the future of finance and why you should consider adding crypto exposure to your well-balanced portfolio.

What is a cryptocurrency?

At its most basic, a cryptocurrency is a digital currency that is secured by a distributed network of globally dispersed computers. This represents one of the key benefits of cryptocurrencies; this decentralization means there is no central bank involvement and no government entity holds control over it. The decentralized network is connected through an open-source technology called blockchain, which serves as a distributed ledger that is secured by strong encryption, called cryptography. In 2009, Bitcoin became the first cryptocurrency every launched on blockchain technology. While Bitcoin remains the largest, most valuable and best-known cryptocurrency, there are now over 10,000 cryptocurrencies available (source & chart: https://www.statista.com/statistics/863917/number-crypto-coins-tokens/). Some you may have heard of, such as Ether, Dogecoin and Litecoin. It is believed that the top 20 cryptocurrencies comprise up to 90% of the total market value. (Source: https://coinmarketcap.com)

Why is crypto important to the future of finance?

One of the most disruptive technologies since the advent of the internet, cryptocurrencies supported by blockchain technology will revolutionize financial services in the same way the internet changed how we gather and share information. 

The technology will allow for faster, more efficient processing of payment transactions, insurance contracts, mortgages and loans, all without the need for a trusted third party, like a credit card issuer, insurance provider or bank.

The move from relying on the centralized financial infrastructure that we’ve all become so familiar with, to one that is decentralized will introduce new risks to personal financial planning. A greater awareness of the security of your financial transactions will be required as the trusted intermediary you’ve relied on in the past will no longer be present in future transactions. Maintaining records and safekeeping of your digital transactions will be of paramount importance. And this is just the beginning. 

Why should you consider adding crypto to your portfolio?

Early cryptocurrency investors have already generated impressive returns and while we don’t hear about these stories too often, given the volatility, some have also lost. We are still in the very early stages of this financial revolution and while past performance is no guarantee of future returns, we remain bullish on the future of the cryptocurrency.

Unlike our existing financial services infrastructure, which is constrained by geography, regulation and centralization, crypto is global, open access and transparent. This allows for easy development of new applications that function seamlessly across the network and around the world.   In future posts we plan to address how to value cryptocurrencies, illustrate where they belong within a balanced portfolio and the risks of investing.

Disclosures
The products and services offered by Arxnovum are available to qualified investors in certain provinces and territories of Canada. Individual investors should contact their own financial professional to determine the most appropriate investment options for their financial situation. This material contains the opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission.
 
All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investing in the cryptocurrency market is subject to risks.  Cryptocurrency, often referred to as “virtual currency” or “digital currency”, operates as a decentralized, peer-to-peer financial exchange and value storage that is used like money. Cryptocurrency operates without the oversight of a central authority or the banks and is not backed by any government. Even indirectly, cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin may experience high volatility, and related investment vehicles may be affected by such volatility. Cryptocurrency is not legal tender. Federal, state, provincial, territorial or foreign governments may restrict the use and exchange of cryptocurrency, and regulation in North America is still developing. Cryptocurrency trading platforms may stop operating or permanently shut down due to fraud, technical glitches, hackers or malware, which could have an adverse impact on the net asset value per unit of the Fund. Please consult the Funds Term Sheet for a complete list of risks.
 
Certain statements in this document are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements (“FLS”) are statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, or that include words such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” or “estimate,” or other similar expressions. Statements that look forward in time or include anything other than historical information are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results, actions or events could differ materially from those set forth in the FLS. FLS are not guarantees of future performance and are by their nature based on numerous assumptions. Although the FLS contained herein are based upon what Arxnovum Investments Inc. and the portfolio manager believe to be reasonable assumptions, neither Arxnovum Investments Inc. nor the portfolio manager can assure that actual results will be consistent with these FLS. The reader is cautioned to consider the FLS carefully and not to place undue reliance on FLS. Unless required by applicable law, it is not undertaken, and specifically disclaimed that there is any intention or obligation to update or revise FLS, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.